New PDF release: Advanced Financial Statements Analysis

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In this case the expected value is also an impossible value. A Pocket Guide to Risk Mathematics In ordinary language, if we ‘expect’ something that means we either think it jolly well ought to happen or that it is more likely than not. In mathematics, an expected value does not need to be more likely than not and might not even be possible. g. about forecasts) other outcomes tend to be forgotten. An expected value supported by pages of spreadsheeting gets a credibility it rarely deserves. Auditors should check for this in a variety of situations and recommend taking a broader view and considering more possible futures.

A Pocket Guide to Risk Mathematics What is an elementary outcome? That’s something else to be decided and written down. There are options and to some extent the decision is an arbitrary one. However, some choices are easier to work with than others. For example, if you can define your outcomes in such a way that they are equally likely, then that makes life a lot easier. Sometimes the outcomes are more like combinations of outcomes. For example, the outcomes from tossing two coins one after the other could be defined as {(H,H), (H,T), (T,H), (T,T)} with the first letter representing one coin and the second representing the other.

It was a budget guaranteed to be wrong. In fact they decided to put nothing in the budget at all and were surprised to find, a year or so later, that VAT would be charged.

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